Betting picks that show their work.

EDGE scores every fixture across 7 signals, reasons through the qualifying picks with Claude, and assembles disciplined ticket sessions — sized by Kelly, not guesswork. It picks only when the data justifies it, not on a forced schedule.

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edge / session.log

signal threshold·≥4 of 7 layers

max combined odds·3.00

stake caps·3% / 2% / 1%

fractional kelly·0.5×

pipeline·sonnet → opus → sonnet

The framework

7 signals. A pick only qualifies when at least 4 agree.

H2H Record

Last 5–10 meetings, weighted by recency.

Current Form

Last 5 results and goal patterns for both sides.

Home/Away Differential

Home win %, away clean sheet rate, scoring patterns.

Injury & Lineup Intelligence

Key absences — top scorer, keeper, defensive anchor.

Market Odds Signal

Consensus across 15+ books, opening vs current line.

EV Detection

Expected value vs Pinnacle. Only ≥4% edge advances.

AI Statistical Model

Poisson-based prediction checked against the AI score.

The pipeline

Three stages. Only one of them needs to actually think.

Stages 1 and 3 are formatting and rule-following — Sonnet handles those at a fraction of the cost. Stage 2 is genuine multi-signal trade-off reasoning, so it runs on Opus.

stage 1 · claude-sonnet-5Signal scoringStructured formatting — no deep reasoning needed.

stage 2 · claude-opus-4-8Pick reasoningThe only stage that needs real trade-off judgment.

stage 3 · claude-sonnet-5Ticket assemblyCombinatorics and rule enforcement.

The discipline

Every stake is sized by Kelly, capped in code.

Fractional Kelly (0.5×) with a hard cap per tier — enforced by the staking module, not willpower. Maximum 6% of bankroll at risk across a single session.

DIAMONDall 7 signals · EV ≥15%

max 3%

GOLD5–6 signals · EV ≥8%

max 2%

SILVER4–5 signals · EV ≥4%

max 1%

Session cadence

Runs automatically. Holds when it should.

Ingest

Fixtures, odds, and form pulled fresh every morning.

Score

7 signal layers evaluated per candidate pick.

Reason

Qualifying picks get full AI rationale and tiering.

Assemble

Three disciplined tickets, capped at 3.00 combined odds.

Settle

Results and CLV logged automatically after full time.

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